diff --git a/spring-integration-jmx/src/main/java/org/springframework/integration/monitor/ExponentialMovingAverageRatio.java b/spring-integration-jmx/src/main/java/org/springframework/integration/monitor/ExponentialMovingAverageRatio.java
index 48297f2bb0..6240b6cb96 100644
--- a/spring-integration-jmx/src/main/java/org/springframework/integration/monitor/ExponentialMovingAverageRatio.java
+++ b/spring-integration-jmx/src/main/java/org/springframework/integration/monitor/ExponentialMovingAverageRatio.java
@@ -92,7 +92,8 @@ public class ExponentialMovingAverageRatio {
 	public double getMean() {
 		int count = cumulative.getCount();
 		if (count == 0) {
-			return 0;
+			// Optimistic to start: success rate is 100%
+			return 1;
 		}
 		long t = System.currentTimeMillis();
 		double alpha = Math.exp((t0 - t) * lapse);
diff --git a/spring-integration-jmx/src/test/java/org/springframework/integration/monitor/ExponentialMovingAverageRatioTests.java b/spring-integration-jmx/src/test/java/org/springframework/integration/monitor/ExponentialMovingAverageRatioTests.java
index acbb8e7e67..09feb9eb72 100644
--- a/spring-integration-jmx/src/test/java/org/springframework/integration/monitor/ExponentialMovingAverageRatioTests.java
+++ b/spring-integration-jmx/src/test/java/org/springframework/integration/monitor/ExponentialMovingAverageRatioTests.java
@@ -45,14 +45,14 @@ public class ExponentialMovingAverageRatioTests {
 
 	@Test
 	public void testGetEarlyMean() throws Exception {
-		assertEquals(0, history.getMean(), 0.01);
+		assertEquals(1, history.getMean(), 0.01);
 		history.success();
 		assertEquals(1, history.getMean(), 0.01);
 	}
 
 	@Test
 	public void testGetEarlyFailure() throws Exception {
-		assertEquals(0, history.getMean(), 0.01);
+		assertEquals(1, history.getMean(), 0.01);
 		history.failure();
 		assertEquals(0, history.getMean(), 0.01);
 	}
@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@ public class ExponentialMovingAverageRatioTests {
 
 	@Test
 	public void testGetMean() throws Exception {
-		assertEquals(0, history.getMean(), 0.01);
+		assertEquals(1, history.getMean(), 0.01);
 		history.success();
 		assertEquals(1, history.getMean(), 0.01);
 		history.success();
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ public class ExponentialMovingAverageRatioTests {
 
 	@Test
 	public void testGetMeanFailuresHighRate() throws Exception {
-		assertEquals(0, history.getMean(), 0.01);
+		assertEquals(1, history.getMean(), 0.01);
 		history.success();
 		assertEquals(average(1), history.getMean(), 0.01);
 		history.failure();
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ public class ExponentialMovingAverageRatioTests {
 
 	@Test
 	public void testGetMeanFailuresLowRate() throws Exception {
-		assertEquals(0, history.getMean(), 0.01);
+		assertEquals(1, history.getMean(), 0.01);
 		history.failure();
 		assertEquals(average(0), history.getMean(), 0.01);
 		history.failure();